Procurement Anomaly Detector
Procurement Anomaly Detector. Sourced file on procurement analysis — open the primary instruments cited on the page, not the summary alone.
01 — DATABASE OVERVIEW1.13 Million Contracts Analyzed
Every contract the Government of Canada signs over $10,000 is published on open.canada.ca. This page analyzes that data for patterns that indicate waste, corruption, or institutional capture.
SOLE-SOURCE Non-Competitive Contracts
Contracts awarded without competitive bidding. The "Limited Tendering" solicitation procedure means no other vendor was considered. Common justifications: "Exclusive Rights" (only one vendor can do it) and "Extreme Urgency" (no time to compete). Both are frequently abused.
AMENDMENT Cost Overruns via Amendments
When a contract's amendment value significantly exceeds the original value, the initial bid was either deliberately low (to win the competition) or the scope expanded without re-competing. Either way, the taxpayer pays more than was approved. Flagged when amendment > 50% of original.
CONCENTRATION Vendor Concentration
When a single vendor receives a disproportionate number of contracts from a department, it suggests institutional capture — the department is dependent on (or captured by) that vendor. Flagged when one vendor holds >15% of a department's contracts by value.
REVOLVING DOOR Former Public Servant
Contracts awarded to companies whose key personnel are former federal employees. The "Former Public Servant" field indicates the contractor previously worked for the government — potentially the same department awarding the contract.
URGENCY "Extreme Urgency" Claims
The "Extreme Urgency" justification for sole-sourcing should be rare. When a department uses it frequently, it indicates either chronic under-planning or deliberate abuse of the urgency exception to avoid competition.
SPLIT Contract Splitting
Multiple contracts just below reporting thresholds ($10K, $25K, $100K) to the same vendor suggest deliberate splitting to avoid scrutiny or competition requirements. Flagged when >3 contracts to same vendor within 30 days with similar descriptions.
03 — KNOWN ANOMALIESAlready Documented in The 504
The following contracts have already been flagged and documented in The 504:
| Contract | Original | Final | Overrun | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Pay System (IBM) | $309M | $7.5B+ | 2,327% | SOLE-SOURCEAMENDMENT |
| ArriveCAN (GCStrategies) | $2.5M | $54M | 2,060% | SOLE-SOURCEREVOLVING DOOR |
| Trans Mountain Pipeline | $5.4B | $34.2B | 533% | AMENDMENT |
| CSC Frigates (Type 26) | $26.2B | $80B+ | 205% | SOLE-SOURCEAMENDMENT |
| F-35 Fighter Jets | $19B | $27.7B | 46% | SOLE-SOURCE |
| Site C Dam (BC Hydro) | $6.6B | $16B | 143% | AMENDMENT |
| SDTC Green Fund | $1B | $1.15B | 15% | REVOLVING DOORCONCENTRATION |
| McKinsey Consulting | — | $209M | — | SOLE-SOURCECONCENTRATION |
| Cúram Benefits System | — | $5B+ | — | AMENDMENT |
| Ontario Staples/Walmart PPE | est. | 26x | 2,500% | SOLE-SOURCE |
Combined documented overruns: $140+ billion across 10 contracts. Average overrun: 987%. Sources: Auditor General, PBO, Parliamentary Committees, CBC News.
03b — SEARCHFull Anomaly Database (18 Cases)
Search and filter all documented procurement failures. Click any vendor name to search the government's own contract registry.
| Contract | Vendor | Original | Final | Overrun | Flags | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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04 — LIVE SCANLatest Automated Scan Results
Live anomaly scan from open.canada.ca proactive disclosure data. Last run: loading...
| Vendor | Department | Spend | Dept Total | Concentration | Severity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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05 — METHODOLOGYHow the Detector Works
Detection Algorithm
The anomaly detector applies 6 flags to every contract in the database:
SOLE-SOURCE— Solicitation Procedure = "Limited Tendering"AMENDMENT— Amendment Value > 50% of Original ValueCONCENTRATION— Vendor holds >15% of department spendREVOLVING DOOR— Former Public Servant = YesURGENCY— Limited Tendering Reason = "Extreme Urgency" (department frequency > 5%)SPLIT— >3 contracts to same vendor within 30 days, similar descriptions
Contracts with 2+ flags are marked high priority. Contracts with 3+ flags are marked critical. The algorithm produces zero false accusations — it flags patterns, not people. The data speaks for itself.
Data Source
All data comes from open.canada.ca/contracts — the Government of Canada's own proactive disclosure portal. 1,130,985 contracts. 80+ departments. 17 years of history. This is not leaked data. This is not hacked data. This is data the government published about itself.
The government built the database. We built the detector. The math does the rest.
05 — THE PATTERNWhat the Data Proves
THE PROCUREMENT PATTERN
- ■ Phoenix: $309M → $7.5B (2,327% overrun). Nobody fired.
- ■ ArriveCAN: $2.5M → $54M (2,060%). Two-person company. Sole-sourced.
- ■ Trans Mountain: $5.4B → $34.2B (533%). Sold at a loss.
- ■ CSC Frigates: $26.2B → $80B+ (205%). Design not finished.
- ■ Cúram: Cost unknown. Officials: "we don't know."
- ■ Ontario PPE: 26x expected cost. Sole-sourced to Staples.
- ■ Combined overruns: $140+ billion. Average: 987%. Convictions: 0.
Every contract was awarded by the government. Every overrun was approved by the government. Every audit was conducted by the government. And not a single person responsible for $140 billion in overruns has served prison time. The procurement system isn't broken — it's working exactly as designed. For someone.
Primary records on this file.
Procurement Anomaly Detector. Cost and schedule claims track Auditor General and parliamentary instruments on this file.