Procurement Anomaly Detector

🤖 CONTINUOUS ANALYSIS OVERRIDE

01 — DATABASE OVERVIEW1.13 Million Contracts Analyzed

1,130,985

Total Contracts

80+

Departments

Years of Data

Anomaly Flags

Every contract the Government of Canada signs over $10,000 is published on open.canada.ca. This page analyzes that data for patterns that indicate waste, corruption, or institutional capture.

02 — ANOMALY FLAGSWhat We Look For

SOLE-SOURCE Non-Competitive Contracts

Contracts awarded without competitive bidding. The "Limited Tendering" solicitation procedure means no other vendor was considered. Common justifications: "Exclusive Rights" (only one vendor can do it) and "Extreme Urgency" (no time to compete). Both are frequently abused.

Field: Solicitation Procedure = "Limited Tendering" | Limited Tendering Reason

AMENDMENT Cost Overruns via Amendments

When a contract's amendment value significantly exceeds the original value, the initial bid was either deliberately low (to win the competition) or the scope expanded without re-competing. Either way, the taxpayer pays more than was approved. Flagged when amendment > 50% of original.

Field: Amendment Value > Original Value × 0.5

CONCENTRATION Vendor Concentration

When a single vendor receives a disproportionate number of contracts from a department, it suggests institutional capture — the department is dependent on (or captured by) that vendor. Flagged when one vendor holds >15% of a department's contracts by value.

Field: GROUP BY vendor_name, organization | HAVING SUM(value) > 15% of dept total

REVOLVING DOOR Former Public Servant

Contracts awarded to companies whose key personnel are former federal employees. The "Former Public Servant" field indicates the contractor previously worked for the government — potentially the same department awarding the contract.

Field: Former Public Servant = Yes

URGENCY "Extreme Urgency" Claims

The "Extreme Urgency" justification for sole-sourcing should be rare. When a department uses it frequently, it indicates either chronic under-planning or deliberate abuse of the urgency exception to avoid competition.

Field: Limited Tendering Reason = "Extreme Urgency" | Frequency per department

SPLIT Contract Splitting

Multiple contracts just below reporting thresholds ($10K, $25K, $100K) to the same vendor suggest deliberate splitting to avoid scrutiny or competition requirements. Flagged when >3 contracts to same vendor within 30 days with similar descriptions.

Field: GROUP BY vendor_name WHERE date_diff < 30 AND count > 3

03 — KNOWN ANOMALIESAlready Documented in The 504

The following contracts have already been flagged and documented in The 504:

Contract	Original	Final	Overrun	Flags
Phoenix Pay System (IBM)	$309M	$7.5B+	2,327%	SOLE-SOURCEAMENDMENT
ArriveCAN (GCStrategies)	$2.5M	$54M	2,060%	SOLE-SOURCEREVOLVING DOOR
Trans Mountain Pipeline	$5.4B	$34.2B	533%	AMENDMENT
CSC Frigates (Type 26)	$26.2B	$80B+	205%	SOLE-SOURCEAMENDMENT
F-35 Fighter Jets	$19B	$27.7B	46%	SOLE-SOURCE
Site C Dam (BC Hydro)	$6.6B	$16B	143%	AMENDMENT
SDTC Green Fund	$1B	$1.15B	15%	REVOLVING DOORCONCENTRATION
McKinsey Consulting	—	$209M	—	SOLE-SOURCECONCENTRATION
Cúram Benefits System	—	$5B+	—	AMENDMENT
Ontario Staples/Walmart PPE	est.	26x	2,500%	SOLE-SOURCE

Combined documented overruns: $140+ billion across 10 contracts. Average overrun: 987%. Sources: Auditor General, PBO, Parliamentary Committees, CBC News.

03b — SEARCHFull Anomaly Database (18 Cases)

Search and filter all documented procurement failures. Click any vendor name to search the government's own contract registry.

Contract	Vendor	Original	Final	Overrun	Flags	Outcome
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04 — LIVE SCANLatest Automated Scan Results

Live anomaly scan from open.canada.ca proactive disclosure data. Last run: loading...

Contracts Scanned

Anomalies Found

High Severity

Vendor	Department	Spend	Dept Total	Concentration	Severity
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05 — METHODOLOGYHow the Detector Works

Detection Algorithm

The anomaly detector applies 6 flags to every contract in the database:

SOLE-SOURCE — Solicitation Procedure = "Limited Tendering"
AMENDMENT — Amendment Value > 50% of Original Value
CONCENTRATION — Vendor holds >15% of department spend
REVOLVING DOOR — Former Public Servant = Yes
URGENCY — Limited Tendering Reason = "Extreme Urgency" (department frequency > 5%)
SPLIT — >3 contracts to same vendor within 30 days, similar descriptions

Contracts with 2+ flags are marked high priority. Contracts with 3+ flags are marked critical. The algorithm produces zero false accusations — it flags patterns, not people. The data speaks for itself.

Data Source

All data comes from open.canada.ca/contracts — the Government of Canada's own proactive disclosure portal. 1,130,985 contracts. 80+ departments. 17 years of history. This is not leaked data. This is not hacked data. This is data the government published about itself.

The government built the database. We built the detector. The math does the rest.

05 — THE PATTERNWhat the Data Proves

THE PROCUREMENT PATTERN

■ Phoenix: $309M → $7.5B (2,327% overrun). Nobody fired.
■ ArriveCAN: $2.5M → $54M (2,060%). Two-person company. Sole-sourced.
■ Trans Mountain: $5.4B → $34.2B (533%). Sold at a loss.
■ CSC Frigates: $26.2B → $80B+ (205%). Design not finished.
■ Cúram: Cost unknown. Officials: "we don't know."
■ Ontario PPE: 26x expected cost. Sole-sourced to Staples.
■ Combined overruns: $140+ billion. Average: 987%. Convictions: 0.

Every contract was awarded by the government. Every overrun was approved by the government. Every audit was conducted by the government. And not a single person responsible for $140 billion in overruns has served prison time. The procurement system isn't broken — it's working exactly as designed. For someone.