The Promise
$30B Over 5 Years
Fee Reduction: Achieved in Most Provinces
Average childcare fees have dropped significantly under the bilateral agreements. Several provinces have achieved $10/day or near it for regulated spaces. This is a genuine achievement — families who can access a subsidized space pay dramatically less than before. The federal investment has directly reduced the cost of childcare for enrolled families.
The Waitlist Paradox
By reducing fees without simultaneously creating enough new spaces, the program created a supply crisis. Lower fees increased demand (families who previously couldn't afford regulated care now want it), but the physical spaces, trained ECEs, and operational infrastructure didn't scale at the same rate. The result: waitlists that stretch months to years in many municipalities. A $10/day space you can't access is not affordable childcare — it's a lottery ticket.
The ECE Wage Problem
Early childhood educators are leaving the sector because subsidized care means operators have less revenue to pay competitive wages. ECE median wages remain significantly below comparable professions requiring similar education levels. The workforce that delivers childcare cannot afford childcare themselves. Several provinces have implemented ECE wage grids, but retention remains a critical challenge that directly limits space creation.
The Subsidy Paradox
Subsidize price without building supply. Fees drop. Demand surges. Waitlists explode. Workers leave because wages don't keep up. The same pattern as healthcare: universal access promised, infrastructure to deliver it not built. The $10/day promise is real. The spaces to honour it are not. 250,000 new spaces were committed — the question is whether they'll materialise before the families who need them give up waiting.