Original Estimate vs. Reality
| Contract | Original Estimate | Actual Cost | Overrun | Accountability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArriveCAN | $80,000 | $59,000,000 | 737x | AG referral to RCMP |
| Phoenix Pay | $310M | $2,400,000,000+ | 7.7x+ | Zero recovery |
| Surface Combatant | ~$26B (2012) | $60,000,000,000+ | 2.3x+ (growing) | Program continues |
| Cyclone Helicopters | $1.8B (2004) | ~$6B+ (est.) | 3.3x | Delivered 14 years late |
| McKinsey Consulting | Various task orders | $100M+ across departments | N/A — sole source | Committee review only |
The Pattern: Five Steps
1. Low estimate — contract approved based on optimistic cost. 2. Scope creep — requirements expand after contract is awarded. 3. Change orders — contractor profits from every scope change. 4. Delay — timeline extends, interim costs mount. 5. Zero accountability — AG documents failure, no one is punished, next contract goes to the same contractor pool.
The lobbying infrastructure ensures the contractor pool remains the same. Crown immunity ensures the government faces no liability. Whistleblower failure ensures insiders don't report problems.
Every Dollar Wasted Is a Dollar Not Spent on Citizens
$2.4B Phoenix → not spent on healthcare (6.5 million without a doctor). $60B+ CSC → decades late while military degrades. $59M ArriveCAN → digital surveillance infrastructure persists.
Procurement waste is not inefficiency. It is the fiscal mechanism through which corporate welfare is delivered without scrutiny.