producer globally
go to US
per barrel (varies)
delay
The Pipeline Record
Three Decisions That Landlocked Canada
Northern Gateway — Killed
Enbridge's Northern Gateway pipeline would have transported Alberta crude to Kitimat, BC for export to Asian markets. The project was approved by the NEB in 2014. The federal government cancelled it in 2016, citing environmental concerns and opposition from Indigenous communities. Whatever the environmental merits of the decision, the consequence was clear: Canada's only approved tidewater route to the Pacific was eliminated. Asian markets that would have paid world prices for Canadian crude continue to buy from competitors.
Trans Mountain — Delayed a Decade+
The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) to triple capacity from Alberta to the BC coast was proposed in 2013. It faced years of regulatory review, legal challenges, and political opposition. The federal government purchased the pipeline from Kinder Morgan in 2018 for $4.5 billion when the company threatened to abandon the project. TMX was completed in 2024 — over a decade after proposal. As documented in the regulatory capture analysis, the CER approval process favours well-resourced participants and produces extended timelines that benefit neither proponents nor opponents — only lawyers.
Energy East — Cancelled
TransCanada's Energy East pipeline would have transported Alberta crude to eastern Canada and the Atlantic coast — reducing eastern Canada's dependence on imported oil from OPEC countries. The project was cancelled in 2017 after regulatory changes expanded the NEB review scope. Eastern Canadian refineries continue to import foreign oil while western Canadian crude is sold at a discount to the US. The irony is documented: Canada imports foreign oil in the east while selling discounted oil in the west because there is no pipeline connecting the two.
The Consequence
One Customer, No Leverage
The WCS Discount — Billions in Foregone Revenue
Western Canadian Select (WCS) — Canada's benchmark crude — trades at a discount to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of $10-$30 per barrel (varies by market conditions). Part of this discount reflects quality differences (WCS is heavier). Part reflects transportation bottlenecks — the lack of pipeline capacity to tidewater means Canadian crude must compete for limited pipeline space to the US, depressing prices. At 4+ million barrels per day of production, even a $10/barrel discount costs the industry billions annually in foregone revenue — revenue that would flow to government royalties, corporate taxes, and worker wages.
Tariff Vulnerability — Created by Pipeline Politics
As documented in the tariff impact analysis, 75% of Canadian exports go to the US. For energy, the dependence is even higher — 97% of Canadian oil exports go to one customer. When that customer imposes tariffs, Canada has no alternative market. Tidewater access via Northern Gateway or Energy East would have provided leverage: the ability to sell to Asian or European markets when US terms are unfavourable. Pipeline politics eliminated that option. The tariff vulnerability is the direct consequence of energy landlocking.
Energy Captured = Economic Captured
4th largest producer. 97% to one customer. Discount costs billions. No tidewater = no leverage. Tariff vulnerability is the direct consequence.
Pipeline politics eliminated the alternative. The captured system produced an outcome that serves no Canadian's long-term interest.