Credential Recognition
Stage 2 Data: The Credential Trap
| Profession | Recognition Pathway | Typical Duration | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Physicians | MCCQE exams + residency match | 5–10 years | <30% secure residency |
| Nursing (RN) | NCLEX-RN or CPNRE exam | 1–3 years | ~30% first-attempt pass (IENs) |
| Engineering | PEO/APEGA assessment + CDN experience | 2–5 years | Circular trap: need CDN exp. |
| Accounting (CPA) | CPA bridge program + exams | 1–3 years | ~60% with bridge program |
| IT/Software | Least regulated — skill-based | 0–1 year | Highest recognition |
The Physician Paradox
Canada has 6.5 million people without a family doctor. IRCC selects thousands of foreign-trained physicians through Express Entry. Fewer than 30% of international medical graduates (IMGs) secure Canadian residency positions. The remaining 70%+ of selected physician-immigrants work outside medicine — some permanently. The credential system creates an artificial physician shortage while importing doctors who cannot practice.
Income Differentials
Stage 4 Data: The Poverty Pipeline
| Immigration Status | Median Income vs. CDN-Born | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Recent immigrants (Year 1) | ~60% of CDN-born median | -40% |
| Established (Year 5) | ~75% of CDN-born median | -25% |
| Long-term (Year 10) | ~85% of CDN-born median | -15% |
| 20+ years | ~92% of CDN-born median | -8% |
| Canadian-born | 100% (baseline) | — |
Health Convergence
The System Makes Them Sick
| Years Since Immigration | Self-Reported Health (Excellent/Good) | Chronic Disease Rate |
|---|---|---|
| At arrival | Higher than CDN-born | Lower than CDN-born |
| 5 years | Comparable | Approaching CDN-born |
| 10 years | Converging downward | Matching CDN-born |
| 15+ years | Below CDN-born for some groups | Exceeding CDN-born for some conditions |
The Convergence Is the Pipeline
The healthy immigrant effect is not a mystery — it is a documented consequence of the institutional architecture. Immigrants arrive healthy. The credential trap pushes them into low-wage work. The housing crisis consumes their income. Healthcare access is delayed or denied. Food insecurity compounds. Physical and mental health deteriorate. Within 10 years, the system has produced chronic illness in a population that arrived healthy. This deterioration is the transition from Stage 3 to Stage 5 of the immigration-to-MAID pipeline.
The Evidence Chain
Every number on this page comes from official government data. IRCC. StatsCan. CIHI. CMHC. Health Canada. The pipeline is documented in the government's own statistics.
Each table represents a stage transition. Together they form the evidence chain from arrival to MAID eligibility using only official data.